The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals will square off in a pivotal AFC South clash on Monday Night Football.
Betting Odds
- Spread: Jaguars -10
- Over/Under: 40 points
- Moneyline: Jaguars -485, Bengals +365
Jaguars Analysis
The Jaguars are riding a seven-game winning streak, fueled by a dominant defense and resurgent Trevor Lawrence.Lawrence has thrown 13 touchdowns in his last five games, silencing doubters and establishing himself as a franchise cornerstone.
Defensively, the Jaguars boast the league's best run defense (DVOA) and rank fifth overall. They've consistently shut down opposing running games, limiting them to a meager 3.9 yards per carry. This bodes well against a Bengals team forced to rely on a run-heavy approach without Burrow.
Bengals Analysis
The Bengals' playoff hopes took a major blow with Burrow's injury. Backup Jake Browning is untested and lacks Burrow's arm talent and leadership. The Bengals' offense, once explosive, is likely to become more conservative and predictable under Browning.
The Bengals' defense hasn't been much better, ranking 26th in DVOA. They're particularly vulnerable against the run,allowing 4.5 yards per carry (29th in the league). This weakness aligns perfectly with the Jaguars' strength, creating a potential mismatch.
Picks & Tips
- Jaguars -10: This spread feels generous considering the Bengals' offensive limitations and the Jaguars' defensive prowess. The Jaguars should control the trenches and win the turnover battle, making a double-digit victory achievable.
- Under 40 points: Both teams lean on their running games, and neither Browning nor the Bengals' depleted receiving corps inspire confidence in an offensive explosion. The Jaguars' defense should stifle the Bengals' running attack, keeping the score below the total.
- Jaguars first half moneyline: The Jaguars' defense has been particularly dominant in the first half, allowing a league-low 6.7 points per first quarter. They should jump out early and build a lead that the Bengals might struggle to overcome, even with the home crowd behind them.
Bonus Tip: Consider a small parlay on the Jaguars -10 and first half moneyline. This capitalizes on the Jaguars' early-game dominance and offers a potentially high payout if they control the tempo from the start.
Overall, the Jaguars appear poised to extend their winning streak and solidify their hold on the AFC South. The Bengals, without Burrow, face an uphill battle and might struggle to keep pace.
Remember, betting involves risk, so wager responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Good luck!